Figure 5 looks at public debt as a share of GDP.
Rising public debt is a near
universal precursor of other post-war crises, not least the 1984 U.S. crisis.
It is notable that U.S. public debt rises much more slowly than it did in run-up to the Big Five crisis.
However, if one were to incorporate the huge buildup in private U.S. debt into these
measures, the comparisons would be notably less favorable.
The correlations in these graphs are not necessarily causal, but in combination
nevertheless suggest that if the United States does not experience a significant and
protracted growth slowdown, it should either be considered very lucky or even more
"special" that most optimistic theories suggest.
Indeed, given the severity of most crisis
indicators in the run-up to its 2007 financial crisis,
the United States should consider
itself quite fortunate if its downturn ends up being a relatively short and mild one.